Lance Armstrong Investigation: I can't believe it's come to this....

Here we are, nearly three and a half years after Floyd Landis's first confession came out and I posted that I was 99.9% confident that pro cyclists had been doping for the past 15-20 years. I ended that first post by saying "Sadly, what would be surprising to me is if someone who is dominating pro cycling such as Alberto Contador was actually not doping!" Of course, soon after that, Alberto failed a doping test in the Tour de France and was suspended from racing.

Since that first post, there have been many posts to follow (this makes number 150 with the label of Lance Armstrong Investigation) and

My Analysis of the Lance Armstrong-Oprah Winfrey Interview

Photo taken from WSJ.com

I was traveling last night and was unable to watch the interview last night but I read some articles on what happened in Lance Armstrong's interview by Oprah Winfrey including one that gives all his responses on the Wall Street Journal. It's interesting reading for sure. Here are some thoughts:

Will Lance's Confession be Anticlimactic?

I've been thinking that saying Lance's confession will be anticlimactic will be a major understatement. I had decided that I won't even try to watch it come out live because it seems like a waste of time. However, yesterday, the NY Times published an article suggesting that Lance Armstrong's confession may be interesting in that it could involve testifying against many top-level officials in cycling such as Hein Verbruggen and Pat McQuaid of the UCI and Lance's former partner at Tailwind Sports, Thom Weisel. Here are some key excerpts from the Times article:

Lance, Livestrong and the UCI

Numerous reports are flooding the internet that the UCI has sustained USADA's decision to strip Lance Armstrong of his seven Tour de France titles making Greg LeMond the only American to ever win the Tour de France. Of course, this comes as no surprise to those who were aware of the plethora of evidence showing Lance to be the biggest sporting fraud in history; the Bernie Madoff of sport.

Last week we read of Livestrong donors asking for their money back. My wife says that given today's news we should be reading soon about Lance wanting his donations to the UCI back too...

Lance Armstrong's Kingdom is Crumbling

 Update: since publishing this post this morning, several other sponsors have dropped Lance Armstrong. This article in The Wall Street Journal lists a bunch...

A few days ago, I received an email from a person who explained that, in 2000, she and her husband had donated $50,000 to the Lance Armstrong Foundation, now LiveStrong. A few years later she initiated a fundraiser that hosted Lance and collected $155,000. She explained that "With the news of Lance's deception, we feel cheated and also resentful that we were used to unknowingly continue the fraud." She said they believe there may be grounds for a class action lawsuit and wondered if there are any attorneys working on LiveStrong litigation due to Lance's fraud. (I'm still trying to find out so please email me if you have information on this.) Today's news reports indicate that this sad story is not an isolated case and that Lance's kingdom is quickly crumbling...

Lance Armstrong Investigation: Signs of Corporate Corruption

Lance Armstrong has now officially earned the title as the Bernie Madoff of sporting fraud. To fraudulently orchestrate an operation that led to winning the Tour de France seven times in a row all the while running a sophisticated doping operation for himself and his teammates is no small feat. Just as Bernie Madoff could never run a $50 billion Ponzi scheme on his own, Lance needed a lot of players to go along with it. Recent news reports are now suggesting that Lance had help from corporate sponsors to pull off this tragic deception...

Lance Armstrong Investigation: More on the Conspiracy

You may be feeling a bit worn down on all the Lance Armstrong stuff in the news. I know I have been. However, today, I read a few things that I found pretty fascinating. One was an article about Jörg Jaksche. The other was an article about Lance's efforts to help both Landis and Hamilton in their efforts to lie about their doping. Here are some excerpts:

What Do I Have Against Lance?

I was told by a friend that someone asked him what I have against Lance. Maybe others have also wondered that. Before I get to that, let me comment on some other news in pro cycling.

Lance Armstrong Investigation: More to the Story

Several news outlets (including NPR, VeloNation and CyclingNews) are reporting that the decision to drop the criminal charges against Lance Armstrong came as a big surprise to several federal agencies that were working on the case. The word is that the other agencies believed they had a solid case against Lance. You have to wonder what motivated the individual at the US Attorney's Office who allegedly made this decision on his own, Andre Birotte, to take this action. Was Birotte given a donation like the UCI received a donation?! Here are some quotes to consider:

Contador Ruling: Stripped of Tour de France Title

VeloNation is reporting that the Court of Arbitration in Sport (CAS) has ruled on Alberto Contador and, to my surprise, they found that his doping violation will hold. What this means is that he is stripped of one of his Tour de France titles, a Giro d' Italia title and several wins in other races. Contador was given the full two-year ban. It appears that justice is sometimes served in pro-cycling!

Lance Armstrong Investigation: What Did We Learn?

As you've probably heard, it was announced yesterday that the Grand Jury investigation that involved Lance Armstrong's alleged criminal activity on the U.S. Postal Service cycling team has been closed without any charges. When this investigation first opened, I remember talking with a friend about what would come of it. I thought at the time that the most likely scenario was that we would learn a lot more about Lance and that his reputation would be seriously damaged but that it was unlikely that he would find himself in jail. I never totally thought it was impossible that Lance would end up in jail but I thought it was a very long shot (like half court at the buzzer). After all, if they couldn't find his blood or urine with drugs in it then it would probably be hard to make the charges stick.

In my view, Lance's record has become extremely tainted from the news of the past two years. If you believe the saying that where there is smoke there is fire, then you have to observe all the smoke that came from this investigation and conclude there must be something causing it. The following points are what I think are some of the biggest stains on his record that came from this investigation. As I look at the list, I have to believe that those who followed the investigation will likely have lost most, if not all, respect for Lance (unless they are in complete denial and hero worship). Here is my summary (with links to the top posts on the topic) of the most interesting, and in many cases the most damaging, tidbits to come out from this investigation:

Lance Armstrong Investigation: Tyler Hamilton Spills the Beans

The news broke today that CBS's 60 Minutes has been conducting a six-month investigation of doping in cycling. The full program will be aired this Sunday. For now, the link above has a short part of Tyler's interview. They interviewed Tyler Hamilton and Frankie Andreu and, undoubtedly, others. We probably already knew what Frankie would say but Tyler is shown telling 60 Minutes host, Scott Peller, that he saw Lance "inject (EPO) more than one time." As quoted on VeloNation

Doping in Cycling: McQuaid Wants Former Dopers Out of Management

VeloNation is reporting that Pat McQuaid, President of the UCI, has proposed that any rider who has been caught doping should be banned from later taking a position managing a cycling team.  The rationale for McQuaids proposal is based on the following premise:

Lance Armstrong Investigation: News About and From Floyd Landis

You might have heard that Floyd Landis is being sued in Switzerland by the Pat McQuaid, Hein Verbruggen and the UCI regarding his statements that former and past leadership of the UCI have been corrupt. This is similar to a lawsuit filed by the UCI against the former head of the WADA, Dick Pound that was dismissed a year ago when Pound made a vague statement that allowed the UCI to bow out without losing too much face.

An analysis of the Landis lawsuit on VeloNews suggests that the UCI really will get very little from this lawsuit even if they win it. In the end, the article provides this conclusion:

As one attorney looking at the case noted, “it looks like a PR move on the part of the UCI, one where they pull out all of their resources to try and shut someone up. I doubt it will go anywhere, though.”  

In response to the UCI's apparent PR move, VeloNews is reporting that Floyd Landis has stated that he plans to vigorously defend his statements. Apparently, he has a law firm willing to represent him. In addition, he sent an email to VeloNews that has some insightful statements that I've copied below...

Contador Investigation: UCI Says "Not So Fast Alberto..."

The UCI announce today that they will put their foot down in the Alberto Contador-clenbuterol case and has appealed his decision to the Court of Arbitration for Sport. As you know, this case first came to light last Fall after it was announced that Alberto failed some tests during last year's Tour de France which showed that he had trace amounts of clenbuterol in his system during the tour. Interestingly, the clenbuterol just showed up one day in very small amounts.

As I have blogged earlier, soon after we learned Alberto had clenbuterol in his system it was also revealed that Alberto also had plasticizers in his system. A new, unapproved, test for plasticizers was used to see if Alberto had been blood doping and it appeared he was. However, the test was not yet an approved part of the regulators' arsenal of tools that they could use to find a cheater. Even so, the word was that the plasticizer test could be used to shed light on another test, as it appeared to in this case. The plasticizer theory goes like this:

Contador Investigation: Ruling Overturned by Spanish Federation

 News reports that are hot off the press are saying that Alberto Contador's one-year suspension has been overturned by the body that gave him the suspension: the Spanish cycling federation.

This is the same body that gave Contador the reduced, one-year, sentence last month! What gives?! Here are my thoughts.

Lance Armstrong Investigation: Floyd Speaks Again

Floyd Landis broke months of near silence to accuse Lance Armstrong and his team of systematic doping in the 2004 tour. An article in VeloNation quotes Floyd in explaining how the team bus arranged for blood doping through transfusions that Landis described as "part of the job." The article said that Landis "spoke about a specific incident when he alleges a transfusion involving several riders was carried out on the morning of the first Alpine stage in the 2004 Tour de France." Here are some of the better quotes:

Contador Case Moves to Spain

It was reported today that the UCI turned Contador's case over to the Spanish federation to determine what, if any, penalty the Spaniard should face. Time will tell what this means for Contador. I doubt he will get the maximum two-year suspension so if he gets one year they will back date it to July and he could be racing next August. Some people are speculating that if the Spanish federation is too easy on Alberto then WADA could get involved.

Does anyone of you know what the potential outcomes of this case are? Could the Spanish federation decide Alberto ate a bad steak and tell him to be more careful where he buys his steak next time? Maybe give him a six month ban starting last July?

More on Contador's Beef Story

Several theories about about how Contador (AC) may have ended up with the trace amount of clenbuterol in his blood. One possible theory being explored is that AC was using clenbuterol weeks before the Tour de France and thought it had cleared his system when he then gave blood for future blood doping.  Then, on the rest day, he transfused his blood (with the trace amount of clenbuterol) and the clenbuterol showed up the next day in his urine.

Some experts are alleging that those who transfuse blood have higher amounts of plastic residues from the blood transfusion bags and reports are going around that AC showed a high concentration of plastic in addition to clenbuterol. (Interestingly, one reader pointed out to me that this may be what happened to Floyd when he ended up with excess testosterone in his blood. It's possible that the reason he is still claiming he didn't take testosterone the night before he failed the test is that he transfused his blood from a prior period and the blood had excess testosterone in it.)

Apparently, the UCI has another theory that allows Contador to keep the yellow jersey and for pro cycling to save some face. To have another Tour de France winner lose his yellow jersey would be bad for business and would reflect poorly on the UCI. As for the UCI's theory, Contador gave the following account:

The UCI Caught Lying About Contador

Okay, I need to quit posting about cycling fraud and get back to some of my academic fraud research. Before doing so, I want to point out this article on VeloNation which discusses how the UCI lied yesterday about Contador's positive test. This makes the UCI look as corrupt as Floyd Landis and others are accusing them of being. It appears that the UCI is simply the marketing arm of pro cycling and is all about creating the image that the athletes are not doping (as opposed to stopping doping). It's no wonder the French doping authorities don't like the UCI's anti-doping efforts!

Floyd Landis says that Armstrong and his teams paid the UCI to give his teams preferential treatment and even sweep drug findings under the rug. As I mentioned in a recent post, they admitted to giving Astana extra notice before being tested, etc. Read this article for the latest lies from the UCI.

I (along with other readers who have emailed me) predict that Contador's positive test will be found by the UCI to be so small that it must have come from a burger he ate. As such, Contador will keep his yellow jersey.

If so, I have little or no hope that pro cycling will ever be a sport that I follow because I admire the athletes. Instead, I will follow it because I study fraud.

We will see...