tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6581586488456314302.comments2023-12-08T00:05:03.649-07:00FraudBytesAaronhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10138733175602274983noreply@blogger.comBlogger526125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6581586488456314302.post-29289306193603175542021-08-26T06:17:42.828-06:002021-08-26T06:17:42.828-06:00It's not too surprising that a research celebr...It's not too surprising that a research celebrity would bungle a data fabrication task. They're in a hurry. Early career researchers usually handle all of their data work. They get where they are by finding cute effects and being a good storyteller--not by being an expert at basic algebra and spreadsheets. As far as the data fabrication goes, I thought it was a foregone conclusion that column A (sign at top/sign at bottom) was completely fabricated. It's important to note that column A was reversed (effect in opposite direction) when Mazar analyzed it. When she reached out to Ariely about it he told her that he had mislabeled it and that she should flip all the labels. How then is that column not completely fabricated given what we know about the fabrication of the second set of observations?Aaron Charltonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06447104504020058934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6581586488456314302.post-67422918024023597712021-08-24T14:17:14.315-06:002021-08-24T14:17:14.315-06:00Thanks Justin. I agree. I think he has some intere...Thanks Justin. I agree. I think he has some interesting and compelling evidence but is probably overstating the conclusions that we can draw from it at this point. I will say that my priors that Ariely would never do something like this have been dramatically revised so that now I'm leaning strongly toward the conclusion that he's guilty. Until there is some compelling evidence of his innocence, I certainly wouldn't trust him to manage my retirement accounts or babysit my grandchildren!MZhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09799773837611193311noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6581586488456314302.post-79595093091965951802021-08-24T10:21:05.998-06:002021-08-24T10:21:05.998-06:00Great posts on this story, Mark! To me, DC's c...Great posts on this story, Mark! To me, DC's claims are bolder than their evidence warrants at this point. The evidence is strong, though there are "Ariely didn't do it" explanations for some of the red flags, eg, it's possible that insurance company personnel truncated the data at 50,000 (intentionally or unintentionally, perhaps any values over 50,000 happen to require a different query or are extracted from a different source). It's admittedly harder for me to develop similar explanations for, eg, the apparent lack of rounding in one font but not in another. <br /><br />Can we state with confidence "Ariely did it?" Not yet. Justin Leibyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14770801938011233973noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6581586488456314302.post-74242097276798421842021-08-21T14:34:58.917-06:002021-08-21T14:34:58.917-06:00Also, even if the teeth did not cut, you would sti...Also, even if the teeth did not cut, you would still have long crease lines in the paper running the length of it. Compare that to the photo where only the edges have been mangled. Short of completely removing the central wheels, I'm not sure how that would be possible.TwizT20https://www.blogger.com/profile/10581721474778610610noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6581586488456314302.post-7446827077276697282021-08-19T17:20:51.770-06:002021-08-19T17:20:51.770-06:00What a sad state of affairs. Yes, it's better...What a sad state of affairs. Yes, it's better when truth comes to light, but it can be painful. Time will tell whether or not this is the tip of the iceberg. Setting aside the severe breach of ethics, the costs of scientific malfeasance can be highly costly, especially given how long and laborious it is understand why "findings" do not seem to not replicate. And, imagine instances in which costly controls are implemented in anticipation of dishonesty that does not occur in the way a study purports it to occur. <br />As an aside the link you provide: http://datacolada.org/98 is a wonderful illustration of how simple visualizations of population data can reveal strong signs of "material" misstatement. Great post.Mark Phttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04453320000093642059noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6581586488456314302.post-9068005343145166352021-08-19T10:06:24.944-06:002021-08-19T10:06:24.944-06:00Wow! So did he literally just take time out of his...Wow! So did he literally just take time out of his day to leave a VM because he wanted to actively discourage you from trying to replicate his paper shredder method? I wonder why he was so interested in steering you another direction...Aaron Charltonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06447104504020058934noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6581586488456314302.post-79777189118781821132021-08-19T08:46:10.345-06:002021-08-19T08:46:10.345-06:00Wow, the irony! I can't believe Dan Ariely wou...Wow, the irony! I can't believe Dan Ariely would be so bold as to make a claim about shredders that is so easily de-bunked. I would think that the mindset needed to do so would certainly be a strong indicator of pervasive lies.Ryanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10191320266960432517noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6581586488456314302.post-8442915920230236592016-12-09T03:02:10.473-07:002016-12-09T03:02:10.473-07:00Awesome thank you for sharing useful informationAwesome thank you for sharing useful informationAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02244812798682914766noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6581586488456314302.post-82762113209802930662016-04-11T05:33:05.032-06:002016-04-11T05:33:05.032-06:00Can you recommend any other blogs/websites/forums ...Can you recommend any other blogs/websites/forums that cover the same subjects? Appreciate it!<br />Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6581586488456314302.post-30796737971274650012016-03-22T09:25:26.227-06:002016-03-22T09:25:26.227-06:00Some companies are already using technology like t...Some companies are already using technology like this. I'm not sure when KPMG will implement IBM Watson into their audits, but I would guess within the next year or two.Ryan Sommerfeldthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04716254107422630948noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6581586488456314302.post-91010102993003185912016-03-21T16:17:36.073-06:002016-03-21T16:17:36.073-06:00When will they be starting the upgrades? That is a...When will they be starting the upgrades? That is a big improvement!<br /><br /><br /><a href="http://www.investmentloss.com/_start.php" rel="nofollow">Believe it, Securities Attorney</a><br />Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17992408640811989722noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6581586488456314302.post-62009346543234898442015-10-23T19:05:42.882-06:002015-10-23T19:05:42.882-06:00http://velonews.competitor.com/2015/10/news/armstr...http://velonews.competitor.com/2015/10/news/armstrong-names-ochowitz-in-93-race-fixing_388118<br />The further back they dig, the more fraud they discover with this guy. Justice will be fully served only if he's forced to give back every dime he "won" by cheating. Prison time would be icing on the cake, but don't hold your breath.Larry and Heatherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16346445393389942837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6581586488456314302.post-41165649524385597602015-10-23T18:59:43.986-06:002015-10-23T18:59:43.986-06:00These chips have been around in Europe for years, ...These chips have been around in Europe for years, but it seems US banks thought the costs were too high vs losses due to fraud. NOW the situation seems to have changed to where it's worth it to them to reduce fraud. No matter what, the customer's loss limit on fraudulent charges is pretty low, the banks eat the rest - so in the end this is (as usual) the banks looking after THEIR money, not yours.Larry and Heatherhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16346445393389942837noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6581586488456314302.post-9456305368291040052015-10-14T08:09:15.478-06:002015-10-14T08:09:15.478-06:00Anyone who wants to dramatically improve health an...Anyone who wants to dramatically improve health and performance should change their water <br />and get off all the highly acidic mainstream "performance boosters." This is especially important for you more mainstream athletes who tend to pound very acid things that keep lactic acid build up high, creating fatigue and muscle soreness. This is the #1 little secrete that give the winners that edge over the pack. book in progresshttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11964095384146262828noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6581586488456314302.post-3261984297954411962015-10-01T04:30:24.168-06:002015-10-01T04:30:24.168-06:00That's very informative post.That's very informative post. Nickole Dinardohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05435675622017105709noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6581586488456314302.post-68152120404961576142015-08-27T13:04:14.669-06:002015-08-27T13:04:14.669-06:00I agree. As for Tom Danielson, he's been caugh...I agree. As for Tom Danielson, he's been caught before so does anyone think he is innocent?! MZhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09799773837611193311noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6581586488456314302.post-53519478312570625782015-08-24T18:00:28.435-06:002015-08-24T18:00:28.435-06:00With what we know now about everything else that h...With what we know now about everything else that happened, Occam's Razor would say that Lance absolutely paid off his Dr. This story just gets better and better, and I imagine we are not close to the end yet. Keep posting on this! Also, any insight into Tom Danielson's recent headlines?Adamhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09886734350572556285noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6581586488456314302.post-36347286433527328122015-08-10T20:23:40.972-06:002015-08-10T20:23:40.972-06:00Will you let me know your results? ThanksWill you let me know your results? ThanksAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03629724529941311071noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6581586488456314302.post-84019362788546997222015-08-03T08:33:58.404-06:002015-08-03T08:33:58.404-06:00https://www.sciencebasedmedicine.org/accused-of-ly...https://www.sciencebasedmedicine.org/accused-of-lying-about-asea-not-guilty/Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09748145163906404441noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6581586488456314302.post-87093886254684687062014-12-20T11:19:55.934-07:002014-12-20T11:19:55.934-07:00Great site!Great site!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6581586488456314302.post-62910694255669803322014-12-17T09:21:13.375-07:002014-12-17T09:21:13.375-07:00I had to go look up Pontiac Aztek, (the company sp...I had to go look up Pontiac Aztek, (the company spells it this way ),it's truly hideous. It's bulky and cheap looking, it looks like it was cobbled together from pieces of other vehicles.<br /><br />This article is prescient, it sounds as if it's being written about herbalife today. I guess things haven't changed much in the fraud business over the last five years. What are your thoughts on herbalife and the various investigations into their business practices?Barbara Delaneyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09935335104800848336noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6581586488456314302.post-13475757549730562292014-12-16T17:49:34.423-07:002014-12-16T17:49:34.423-07:00Barbara, the video is embedded and should show bel...Barbara, the video is embedded and should show below the post. If it doesn't, you can go here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H0-WkpmTPrM.Aaronhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10138733175602274983noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6581586488456314302.post-30863020128482616222014-12-16T11:49:20.708-07:002014-12-16T11:49:20.708-07:00What do you think this type of mathematical analys...What do you think this type of mathematical analysis could tell investigators about the herbalife MLM? Do the SEC and FTC conduct these kinds of forensic audits?Barbara Delaneyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09935335104800848336noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6581586488456314302.post-16890021058080324932014-12-16T11:21:53.784-07:002014-12-16T11:21:53.784-07:00Where's the video? There's just a blank sp...Where's the video? There's just a blank space. Could you give us any hints as to where we might find it?Barbara Delaneyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09935335104800848336noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6581586488456314302.post-37988655746295439382014-11-20T19:27:47.417-07:002014-11-20T19:27:47.417-07:00Fanboy failFanboy failAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15387796385953415626noreply@blogger.com